【摘要】 二滩水电站位于四川雅砻江下游，是目前西南地区正建设的规模最大的水电枢纽工程。本文综合了区域地震地质、历史地震和库区水文地质条件，概述了该区域的孕震构造背景；使用二滩遥测地震台网自１９９１年７月正式运转以来积累的数字化记录资料，计算了Ｐ波和Ｓ波的速度结构、地壳介质Ｑ、应力降；在此基础上，引用了数值性能极好的先进技术，对库区地震进行震源位置和深度的精确确定，由本文描画的地震空间分布立体图象，讨论了库区地震分布与地表断裂和深部构造的关系，分析了现今库区及附近天然地震的活动情况，然后对围堰期水库诱震条件进行了综合分析，并利用综合影响参数法、贝叶斯方法和综合法进行了统计预测．最后，给出了二滩水电站围堰期间诱发地震的预测意见。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Ertan hydroelectric station is situated by the lower reaches of the Yalong river. It is the largest hydroelectric project in the southwest of China at present. In this pap.er, we described the seismogenic structure background by the synthesis of the regional seismogeology, historical earthquake and hydrogeologic conditions of the reservoir area ; using the records from the Ertan network of digital telemetric seismograph since July 1991 when it was operated, computed the velocity structures of p- and S-wave, the Q value of regional crustal medium and the regional sterss dropl on this basis, determined accurately the hypocentre l’ocations and focal depths for the earthqakes occurred in the reservoir area adopting the advanced technique with an excellent numerical propertys gave the threedimensional pattern of seismicity; discussed the possible deppendent relation between the spatial earthquake distribution and the suffice faults as well as the deep structures 3 analysed the current natural seismicity in the reservoir and neighboring area. Then, we syntheticly analysed the induced conditions during the reservoir cofferdam. At last, some predictions for the induced reservoir earthquake in the Ertan area during the cofferdam were suggested in the statistic estimations of three methods given (Synthesis influence parameter method, Beyes method, Synthesis method).更多还原