【摘要】 如何有效预防和减少地震及其他突发事件导致的人员伤亡,已成为国内外公共安全工作和研究的重中之重。本文从汶川地震中中学生的伤亡情况、人员疏散状态和疏散时间密切相关的特点出发,阐述了建立中学校园疏散时间模型的必要性。以中学生在面对地震等灾害情况时的心理和行为规律的研究为基础,探究了采用回归分析法建立应急疏散时间与各影响因素之间的回归模型的想法,并且建立人员应急疏散运动时间预测模型的可行性方法。更多还原

【Abstract】 The question how to effectively prevent and reduce injury and death caused by a destructive earthquake and other emergencies has become one of the most important issues in terms of public security.Basing on the fact that the injury and death situation in middle schools in the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 Earthquake has a close connection with the evacuation status and time of rescuing,the writer of this paper sets forth the necessity of constructing an evacuation time model on campus.Moreover,on the foundation of the research on the psychology and behavior regularity among middle school students who face emergencies situation like earthquake,this paper also offers a practical method to set up such a model by adopting the regression analysis between emergency evacuation time and other influential factors.更多还原