【摘要】 本文回顾了2008年5月12日四川省汶川8.0级特大地震前中长期及年度趋势预测过程。作者根据地震活动图像特征作出了较好预测[7],明确指出四川石棉—冕宁和汶川—松潘一带,2008年前后,可能发生7级以上地震。但带短期预测特点的2008年度大震危险性,作者没有作出确切的预测。本文思考了相关的经验教训并对改进分析预报工作提出了构想。更多还原

【Abstract】 The yearly predicting conclusion of the middle-and long-term seismic tendency in Sichuan province written before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is recalled in this paper.According to the seismic images from 2006 to 2007 in Sichuan Province described in the yearly prediction conclusion,we predicted several seismic risk regions which include Shimian-Mianning and Wenchuan-Songpan seismic belts.And the earthquakes with the magnitude greater than M7.0 may happen in these regions.In fact,the occurred earthquakes fell well within the predictive regions.But we did not make the short-term and impending earthquake prediction.The thoughts on the earthquake prediction are put forward.更多还原