【摘要】 对四川及邻区最近30多年来发生的18组6级以上强震前多种地震活动性参数的变化特征进行了分析研究。震例总结显示,衡量区域地震活动异常增强或平静的中等地震月频次异常可作为判断中期是否发生强震的指标;在区域中等地震活动出现异常的前提下,区域小震平静异常可作为判断短期是否发生强震的依据。而根据A值和GL值的空间异常分布范围,结合地震构造背景及其它方法,可缩小预报区域。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,based on analyzing the variation characteristics of seismicity parameters prior to 18 groups M≥6 strong earthquakes occurred in Sichuan and its neighboring areas in recent more than 30 years,we conclude that the anomaly of enhancement or quiescence of regional moderate-size earthquake activity can be used as the mid-term indicator for predicting strong earthquakes,and the regional small-size earthquake quiescence can be as the short-term judgment of strong earthquake.Meanwhile,the predicting area can be reduced according to the spatial anomaly distribution of values of A and GL,and combining with the seismotectonic background.更多还原