【摘要】 对沿鲜水河断裂带布设的跨断层形变测点水平形变和垂直形变累积率进行了计算,根据结果分析了该断裂带及其附近区域发生中强地震前的变化特征并对其进行效能评价。其结果表明:在鲜水河断裂带上每次地震前震源体附近断层都有一个形变累积率绝对值减小过程;沿鲜水河断裂带如果形变累积率出现低值异常,则未来1~1.5年左右的时间内其附近区域100~300 km范围内将有5.0级以上地震发生的可能;且垂直形变累积率预报效能优于水平形变。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the measurement data from the observation sites crossing the faults of Xianshuihe,the vertical and horizontal deformation rates of Xianshuihe faults are calculated.From these calculating results we summarize the deformation characteristics and their relationship between data changes and moderate-strong earthquakes occurred around.Our analysis results show that the deformation rate values from the observation sites along Xianshuihe faults get small before a moderate earthquake around.If the deformation rates are in a low value,a moderate earthquake may occur around.The vertical deformation rate indicator is better than the horizontal one.更多还原