【摘要】 根据2006～2017年水质监测数据资料,对升钟水库水质和营养化状态变化进行分析,探讨了水库水质演变规律、富营养化发展趋势及主要影响因子,同时利用线性回归模型和累积概率密度模型对升钟水库富营养化未来5年的发展趋势进行风险预测。结果表明:升钟水库水质呈上升趋势,水质状态为Ⅱ类。综合营养状态指数显示水库营养状态由富营养逐步向中营养转变,水体中的总氮、总磷、高锰酸盐指数呈显著下降趋势,分析表明总磷是升钟湖富营养化的关键限制因子,未来5年内升钟水库的大坝断面有富营养化的中度风险(58. 78%)。为控制环境风险,针对性提出防治升钟水库富营养化的对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the water quality monitoring data from 2006 to 2017,this paper analyzes the changes of water quality and eutrophication status of Shengzhong Reservoir,and discusses the evolution regularity of reservoir water quality,the development trend of eutrophication and the main influencing factors. Meanwhile,the linear regression model and the cumulative probability density model are used to predict the risk of the eutrophication of the Shengzhong Reservoir in the next five years. The results show that the water quality of Shengzhong Reservoir is on the rise and the water quality belongs to Class II. The comprehensive nutritional status index showed that the nutrient status of the reservoir changed from eutrophication to medium nutrient level. The total nitrogen,total phosphorus and permanganate index in the water showed a significant downward trend. The analysis showed that total phosphorus is the key limitation factor of eutrophication in Shengzhong Lake,and the dam section of the Shengzhong Reservoir has a moderate risk of eutrophication( 58. 78%) in the next five years. In order to control environmental risks,countermeasures and suggestions for preventing eutrophication of Shengzhong Reservoir are proposed.更多还原