【摘要】 经济快速发展下,区域产业用水变化异常复杂且具高度不确定性。为探讨区域用水演变规律及其驱动成因,选取广东省为研究区,基于扩展Kaya恒等式和对数平均迪氏分解法(LMDI)分析了经济规模、产业结构、用水强度和人口规模等要素对广东省产业用水的驱动成因。研究结果表明:经济规模效应和用水强度效应对广东省用水产生较强的驱动力,而产业结构效应和人口规模效应强度对该省的用水影响逐渐减弱;经济规模效应和人口规模效应对广东省用水产生正向驱动力,累计效应值分别为654.90亿、87.90亿m~3;用水强度效应和产业结构效应则产生负向驱动力,累积效应值分别为-587.48亿、-167.99亿m~3。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the rapid economic development,the change of regional industrial water use is extremely complex and highy uncertain.In order to analyze the main factors of industrial water use, the paper builds the industrial water use identity based on the extended Kaya identity, and then adopts the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index model(LMDI)to analyze the driving forces of the economic scale, water use intensity, industrial structure and population size effects. Results show that: ①economic scale and water use intensity effects are the most important factors, while the industrial structure and population size effects are relatively weak;②the decomposition analysis shows that the economic scale and population size effects have positive incremental force, while water intensity and industrial structure effects have reducing force, and the cumulative effect of those four factors are 654.90 billion,87.90 billion,-587.48 billion and-167.99 billion m~3 respectively.更多还原