【摘要】 大气降水是水资源的主要补给来源,降水量及其时空分布决定了本地水资源量的丰枯变化。基于长系列日降雨历史观测资料,结合地理信息系统,运用一元线性回归和非参数检验统计方法Mann-Kendall,以江苏沿海城市——连云港市为例,系统全面分析了其年代际尺度、年尺度、汛期与非汛期尺度、月尺度、日尺度降雨的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:连云港市降雨量总体呈丰—枯—丰—枯周期性变化,该市近10 a处于降水量相对较少时期;汛期与非汛期降雨呈下降趋势且年际变化大;2—5月份降雨量变化显著;年最大日降雨量上升趋势并不显著,但在2000年以后增幅显著增加。研究结果可为江苏沿海围垦区水资源开发利用提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Precipitation is the main water supply for local water resources, and its amount and spatial and temporal distribution dominate the dry/wet extent for local water resource. Based on long-term historical daily precipitation data, and combined with the GIS software, this paper systematically and comprehensively analyzes the spatial and temporal variations of the precipitation at Lianyungang City, a representative coastal city of Jiangsu Province under inter-decadal, annual, flood & non-flood season, monthly and daily scale by linear regression and Mann-Kendall(non-parametric test statistic method) methods. The results show that the precipitation in Lianyungang City shows a wet—dry—wet—dry period, and the city is in dry period in recent ten years; the precipitation in flood & non-flood seasons is on the decrease with great inter-annual variations; significant changes occur from February to May; and the annual maximum daily rainfall increases slightly, but significantly after 2000. The output of the paper could provide references for revealing the developing and utilizing potential of water resources in Jiangsu coastal regions.更多还原