【摘要】 针对Fisher最优分割法在汛期分期中指标权重确定主观性强的问题,借助熵权法计算指标权重的客观性,提出基于熵权法的改进Fisher最优分割法。通过对三峡水库汛期分期实例计算,选取能反映洪水季节性变化规律的5个指标,根据熵权法计算各指标的权重,进而采用Fisher最优分割法进行汛期分期,最后通过气候成因分析和旬信息熵的相对平均离差对分期结果进行检验,并与基于赋均权重和主成分分析的Fisher最优分割法进行对比。结果表明该方法能尽量消除权重计算的人为干扰,汛期分期更为客观准确。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because the Fisher optimal partition method is featured with strong subjectivity in determining index weight in flood season division, while the entropy weight method owns good objectivity,an improved Fisher optimal partition method based on entropy weight method is proposed. Taking Three Gorges Reservoir as a study example, this paper selects five indexes that can reflect the season alvariation laws of the flood to calculate the weight of each index by entropy weight method; then, divides the flood season by the Fisher optimal partition method; finally, tests the results of flood season division by means of climatecause analysis and the relative mean deviation of information entropy, and compares it with that of Fisher optimal partition method based on the equal weight and principal component analysis. The results show that the method can eliminate the human interference of weight calculation as much as possible, and the flood season division is more objective and accurate.更多还原