【摘要】 为探究黄河流域径流演变特征,对花园口水文站1919—2016近百年的天然径流资料进行分析,采用有序聚类分析法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、滑动t平均法分析了花园口水文站径流时间序列的突变性,利用线性趋势回归检验法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、Spearmann秩次相关检验法分析了突变点前后径流时间序列的趋势性。结果表明:1933—1934年、1989—1990年径流突变较为明显,前者突变主要是自然因素(气温、降水)大尺度的变化引起,后者主要是人为因素(用水增加、下垫面改变)流域尺度的变化引起;1919—1933年的趋势显著,通过0.10的显著性检验,表现为下降趋势;1934—1989年、1990—2016年的趋势较为平稳。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to explore the evolution characteristics of runoff in the Yellow River basin, this paper analyzed the natural runoff data of Huayuankou Hydrological Station from 1919 to 2016 for nearly 100 years. The order of clustering analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and sliding t-average method were used to analyze the mutation points of the runoff sequence in Huayuankou Hydrological Station. Linear trend regression test, Mann-Kendall trend test and Spearmann rank correlation test were used to analyze the trend of the runoff series before and after the mutation point. The results show that the runoff mutations in the Yellow River basin were relatively obvious at 1933-1934 and 1989-1990. The mutation of the former is mainly caused by large-scale changes in natural factors(such as temperature, precipitation), and the latter is mainly caused by changes in the basin scale of artificial factors(water use increasing and the bottom surface changing). In 1919-1933, the trend of runoff change is relatively significant, passed 0.10 of the significant level test, showing a downward trend. In 1934-1989 and 1990-2016, the trends of runoff changed are more smoothly.更多还原