【摘要】 采用Mann-Kendall法、距平累计法、变差系数法和Sen’s斜率估测法分析了1998—2015年黄河流域水资源量变化趋势,结果表明:1998—2015年,黄河水资源量整体上比20世纪末的干旱时期有所增大,且具有空间差异性;干流5个主要水文站中的年均天然河川径流量和水资源总量除兰州站小于1956—2000年的而大于1987—2000年的外,头道拐站、龙门站、三门峡站、花园口站均小于1956—2000年的和1987—2000年的,但与1987—2000年的差异不显著; 1998年以来,5站天然径流量、实测径流量、水资源总量都呈现增大趋势,且实测径流量除龙门站外都通过了99%的显著性检验。黄河流域与地表水不重复计算量的地下水资源量主要集中在中下游的河谷平原,1998—2015年呈现减小趋势。河川径流及水资源变化主要受降水、人类取用水活动和土地利用变化的影响。黄河流域取耗水量呈明显增长趋势,耗水强度最大的为兰州站—头道拐站和龙门站—三门峡站区间,5站控制流域平均降水量除兰州站、头道拐站外,均呈不显著增大趋势。1998—2015年黄河径流量与水资源量增长的主要原因为降水量增大。更多还原

【Abstract】 The change trends of water resources in the Yellow River basin in recent years were analyzed by Mann-Kendall method,cumulative average deviation method,variation coefficient method and Sen’s Method.The results show that during 1998-2015,the average amount of river runoff and total water resources in Huayuankou are 45.229 billion and 54.334 billion cubic meters respectively.Comparing with the drought in the late 20 th Century,the water resources problems have been relieved,but there has been spatial different.During 1998-2015,compared with those of both 1956-2000 and 1987-2000 respectively,those are generally less and the average’s differences of those are not significant compared with 1987-2000 in the areas above the 4 main hydrological control stations of Longmen,Toudaoguai,Sanmenxia and Huayuankou on the Yellow River;those of Lanzhou Hydrological Station are less than the average of the two(1956-2000),but slightly more than the average of the two(1987-2000).Since 1998,the amount of river runoff and the amount of measured runoff,the total amount of water resources in the five hydrological stations show an increasing trend and the amount of measured runoff has passed 99% significant tests except Longmen.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of groundwater resources,excluding the surface water,shows a downward trend from1998 to 2015,which is mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River valley plain.Changes in river runoff and water resources are mainly influenced by the changes of precipitation,human water intake activities and land use.In the Yellow River basin,the amount of water intake and water consumption shows an obvious growth trend.The largest water consumption areas are Lanzhou-Toudaoguai and Longmen-Sanmenxia.The precipitation of the areas above the rest stations except Lanzhou and Toudaoguai increases(2005-2015) and the change is not significant.Climate change(rainfall increase) is the main reason for the growth of runoff and water resources in the Yellow River(1998-2015).更多还原