【摘要】 把时间序列相似性匹配的基本概念和方法引入到地震预报的应用中.在分析现阶段时间序列研究成果的基础上,结合大量地震历史源数据和领域专家经验知识,提出了有关地震地区相关性的地震相似度定义和地震序列相似性匹配模型,并通过大量实验模拟对该模型进行了反复验证,实现了基于地震相似度的时间序列相似性匹配算法.同时,通过分析我国地震活动频繁区域近20年来的地震历史数据,应用地震区域序列相似性匹配算法进行了固定时间差的粗粒度和细粒度纵向序列相似性实验分析,取得了可信度较高的实验结果,为地震学预测的应用研究提供了较好的技术支持.更多还原

【Abstract】 On the basis of analyzing the newly time sequence research achievement nowadays, several definitions on seismological zone relativity are put forward in this paper for integrating the large amount of history earthquake source data and the experimental expert knowledge in seismological field. At the same time, the time sequence similarity-matching model of the relevant seismological zone is presented, and then it is implemented through several correlative experimental simulations. Based on the sequence similarity-matching model, a sequence-matching algorithm is given with seismological similarity. Furthermore, by discovering the history earthquake database (EQDB) in recent 20 years, some experiments are provided to analyze longitudinal thick-granularity sequential similarity and thin-granularity sequential similarity. Finally, the experimental result has found its satisfactory way out by using the proposed algorithm to support earthquake prediction.更多还原