【摘要】 寨子崩塌历史上曾发生多次崩塌,残留的大量危岩体严重威胁着下方420名村民的生命财产安全,开展相应的风险评估研究具有紧迫性和必要性。通过无人机倾斜摄影、三维实景建模和ploywork点云数据处理技术获取崩塌坡体的地质和几何信息,识别出该坡面上存在3块危岩体。根据结构面组合关系和假定断面法对危岩体的体积进行了确定。基于历史崩塌块石的统计,根据崩塌的MCF关系,确定崩塌的年发生概率。基于历史崩塌块石滞留位置,采用参数反演和随机性崩塌运动模拟分析,得出崩塌的到达概率。结合时空分布概率调查和易损性分析,对贵州寨子崩塌进行了崩塌风险定量评价(QRA)。结果表明:无论在晴天期还是雨天期,危岩体1～3均处于警告区间,建议加强监测并采取一定的防灾减灾措施。评价方法和结果可为其他单体崩塌灾害风险定量评价研究提供参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Zhaizi rockfall collapsed many times in the history and a large number of residual dangerous rock masses seriously threaten the life and property safety of 420 villagers below the rockfall. It is urgent and necessary to carry out the corresponding risk assessment research. In this paper, the geological and geometric information of the collapse are obtained by UAV tilt photography, 3 D scene modeling and ploywork point cloud data processing technology, and three dangerous rock masses on the slope were detected. The volume of dangerous rock mass was determined according to the combination relation of structural plane and the assumed section method. Based on the statistics of the historical rockfall, the collapse annual occurrence probability was derived from a MCF distribution of rockfall event. Based on the retention position of the historical rockfall, the probability of rockfall arrival was obtained by means of parameter inversion and random rockfall simulation analysis. Combined with the analysis of spatial and temporal distribution probability and vulnerability, the quantitative risk assessment(QRA) of this rockfall is carried out. The results show that no matter in sunny or rainy days, the risk values of blocks 1,2 and 3 are in the warning range. It is suggested to strengthen monitoring and take certain disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The assessment method and results can provide a reference for quantitative risk assessment of other rockfall research.更多还原