【摘要】 随着经济的发展,水资源供需矛盾日益加剧。为了科学评价水资源承载力风险,进而对我国水资源利用状况提出警示,从水资源、社会、经济以及生态等4个角度建立了水资源承载力风险评价指标体系;同时,将风险划分为轻度风险、中度风险、重度风险、极度风险4个等级,利用熵权理想点法对水资源承载力风险开展评价。最后,以北京、天津、上海、武汉、重庆等5个城市作为研究对象,对这些城市2015年的水资源承载力风险进行评价研究。研究结果表明:北京市、天津市和上海市处于重度风险级别;重庆市、武汉市处于轻度风险级别。研究结果与实际相符,表明该评价模型具有可行性及推广性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rapid economic growth exerts great pressure on water supply. In order to evaluate risks of water resources carrying capacity in a scientific manner, and raise concerns about water resources utilization in China, we established an evaluation index system from perspectives of water resources, society, economy and ecology. Meanwhile, we determined four levels of risks, i.e. mild, moderate, severe, and extreme, and evaluated the risk levels of water resources carrying capacity using entropy weighting ideal point method. We also evaluated risk levels against Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing in 2015. The results show that Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai bear severe risks in terms of water resources carrying capacity, while Chongqing and Wuhan are in the mild risk level. The results are in reasonably good agreement with practical value, suggesting the model is feasible and applicable.更多还原