【摘要】 地震后的人员伤亡快速评估,对于地震应急响应具有重要意义。该文运用基于地震场景重建的经验模型,研究了云南省的地震人员死亡率,并以鲁甸地震为例,对震后死亡人数进行了估算。收集了云南地区1970年至2008年至少造成1人伤亡的37个地震案例,基于地震烈度分布图和人口密度数据,得到地震案例各个烈度区的暴露人口数;运用美国地质调查局基于地震烈度的人口死亡率模型对人口死亡数进行估算,随后比较人口死亡估算值和人口死亡实际数的差值,对差值进行最优化求解使其最小,从而确定模型的参数值,得到云南省的地震人口死亡率。计算得到鲁甸6.5级地震人员死亡数为308,与实际死亡人数(617)处于同一量级,该地震属于特别重大地震,应急响应级别为I级,与实际情况相符。结果表明,基于地震场景重建的死亡率经验模型对于中国省市地区尺度的震后死亡人数快速评估,具有较好的适用性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Prompt seismic casualty estimates are of great importance for earthquake emergency response. An earthquake scenario reconstruction-based empirical model is used to study the earthquake fatality rate for the Ludian earthquake in Yunnan Province.37 earthquakes which caused at least one casualty between 1970and2008 are compiled and the population exposure at each earthquake intensity level is computed based on a seismic intensity distribution map and population density data.Fatalities are then estimated using the U.S.Geological Survey intensity-based fatality rate model.Two model parameters are optimized to minimize the difference between the estimated deaths and the recorded deaths for Yunnan Province.The fatalities for the Ms 6.5Ludian earthquake are estimated(308deaths)to be the the same order of magnitude as the actual number of deaths(617).The Ludian earthquake is classified as a particularly serious earthquake with an emergency response level of I,which is consistent with the actual situation.The results indicate that this earthquake scenario reconstruction-based empirical fatality rate model can be used for prompt seismic fatality estimates in China at the provincial and regional level.更多还原