【摘要】 突发事件发生后,可能会引发一系列的次生、衍生事件,形成事件链式效应。事件链式效应使得突发事件更加复杂,因此对突发事件链式效应的研究对应急管理工作具有重要指导意义。该文在现有灾害理论研究的基础上,针对突发事件的发生规律,提出了突发事件由4个要素组成,即致灾因子、承灾体、孕灾环境和相互作用形式,并进而提出了一种描述事件链式效应的方法。以地震事件链为例对该方法进行了实例验证,结果表明该方法可对突发事件链式效应进行有效的描述。更多还原

【Abstract】 A series of secondary and derived events may occur after an emergency, which is called a disaster chain. The disaster chain makes the emergency event more complex; therefore, research is needed to improve emergency management of disaster chains. Theories of disaster science state that an emergency event consists of four elements: hazard formative factors, hazard affected bodies, hazard producing environment, and mutual functions. This paper presents a method to describe the disaster chains. The model is then used to describe the disaster chain of an earthquake with the results showing that the model accurately describes the emergency event and the event chain.更多还原