【摘要】 以5.12汶川特大地震为背景,针对地震灾区处于丘陵高山和经济欠发达地区的特点,论述特大地震灾害应急避难场所选址的原则与模型。根据野外实地考察数据与分析资料,通过对地震灾害的全面风险分析与评估,建立层次化评价指标体系,应用AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process)方法建立选址原则层次分析模型并进行定量分析。成果可以协助决策部门为地震灾区恢复重建选址和确定特大地震应急避难场所的选址提供科学技术依据,为国家制定地震应急避难场所选址的相关规定提供参考。采用极重灾区的选址作为实际案例比较,对该方法的适用性和模型的有效型进行了验证,对其局限性做出客观分析,并探讨了该领域未来研究方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,we use the 5.12 Wenchuan earthquake as background event,the principles on emergency shelter site selection and its modeling under disastrous earthquake are studied and the application of the model are discussed.Based on the field investigations and data analysis,the total risk assessment and evaluation are carried out and principles with effective index factors are set up.AHP(Analytical Hierarchy Process)method is adapted to set up the decision model for analyzing the factors quantitatively.The model and its analytical results can be used as a decision making tool of supporting the government in the earthquake recovery and reconstruction programs.Practical examples of site options evaluation from the Wenchuan earthquake heavy damaged regions are used by testing the current model.The limitations and future research aspects are discussed.更多还原