【摘要】 中国是世界上受灾最严重的少数国家之一,地震、雪灾、洪涝三大自然灾害发生频率高、分布广,研究它们的空间分布以及空间聚集性,对防灾减灾工作以及储备库救灾物资的配置有重大意义。对灾害进行空间自相关性分析可以反映灾害的空间分布和聚集的情况。该文利用震中分布图,断裂带分布图,雪灾频率图和洪涝频率图得到中国三大自然灾害的分布图,对它们进行空间自相关分析,得到三种自然灾害的空间自相关性分布图。结果表明:三种自然灾害的发生具有显著的空间自相关性,全局自相关系数(Moran’sI)的Z值都大于0.01的置信水平的2.54。局部自相关分析结果表明,三种自然灾害都主要呈现高高正相关(HH)或低低正相关(LL)的聚集方式,较少或没有高低负相关(HL)或低高负相关(LH)的聚集方式,说明三种自然灾害各自的发生区域集中,具有各自的中心。地震主要发生在我国的西南地区和台湾省,雪灾主要发生在内蒙古自治区和新疆维吾尔自治区,洪涝主要发生在我国的东南地区。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a country which is strongly struck by disasters,and three natural disasters occurr frequently and distribute widely.Studying their spatial distribution and spatial aggregation is significant to disaster prevention,reduction and relief supplies configuration.The spatial distribution and aggregation of disasters can be showed by spatial autocorrelation analysis on the three natural disasters.In this paper,the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters were got from epicenter distribution map,fault zone distribution map,snow and ice disasters frequency map and flooding frequency map.The spatial autocorrelation distribution maps were got from spatial autocorrelation analysis on the spatial distribution of the three natural disasters.The results showed that the three natural disasters reached significant spatial autocorrelation level because the three Z indices of the global correlation coefficient(Moran’s I) were greater than 2.54 at the 0.01 confidence level.Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distributions of three natural disasters mainly showed high-high positive autocorrelation(HH) or low-low positive autocorrelation(LL) and little high-low negative autocorrelation(HL) or low-high negative autocorrelation(LH).Three natural disasters occurred in such regions and had their own centers.The earthquake occurred mainly in the southwest region of China and Taiwan Province,the snow and ice disasters mainly in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,floods mainly in the southeast region of China.更多还原