【摘要】 理论分析农户休耕行为及其意愿决策机理的基础上,构建Probit模型,采用重金属污染区湖南省长沙市和株洲市部分休耕试点农户入户调研的243个样本,实证分析农户休耕意愿的影响因素及其差异性。研究表明:1)被调查者的年龄、耕地离家距离、耕地等级和对休耕政策认同程度对农户休耕意愿具有显著的正向影响;家庭劳动力人数占总人数比例、休耕前农业收入占总收入比例和休耕补偿期望偏差对农户休耕意愿具有显著的负向影响;2)不同年龄段、不同家庭劳动力占比、不同耕地离家距离和不同休耕政策认同程度限定下,影响农户休耕意愿的因素具有差异性。其中,对休耕政策认同限定下女性农户的休耕意愿比男性农户低,且农户年龄越大越愿意休耕;家庭劳动力人数占总人数比例在50%及以下的农户受教育程度与休耕意愿呈现正向影响;农户家庭特征和对休耕政策的认知是在大多数限定条件下影响农户休耕意愿的重要因素。重金属污染区农户休耕意愿的影响因素及其差异性分析结论将为制定政策调动农户休耕积极性和完善耕地休耕制度提供决策参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the theoretical analysis of farmer’s fallowing behavior and the decision-making mechanism,243 samples of households are analyzed for the features and differences between FFF by the Probit model.The fallowing cultivation pilots in Changsha and Zhuzhou,Hunan Province is surveyed,where the land is contaminated by heavy metal.The results show that:1)The farmer’s fallowing willingness is positively influenced by the age of the respondents,the distance of the arable land,the level of the cultivated land and the degree of recognition of the fallowing policy.However,it is negatively impacted by the proportion of the family labor force to the total number of people,the agricultural income before fallowing to the total income and the expected deviation of fallow compensation;2)The factors that affect farmer’s fallowing willingness differ due to the various age groups,the proportion of different family labor force,the distance of farmland to home and the degree of fallow of the different fallow policies.Among them,the fallowing willingness of female farmer households is lower than that of male farmer households.Meanwhile,the older the farmer households are,the more willing they are to fallow.Famers,whose labor force accounts for over50%in the household,are willing to fallow.The characteristics of farmers and their knowledge of the policies are important factors to FFF under the limited conditions.The influencing factors and differences in farmer’s fallowing willingness in heavy metal-contaminated areas will provide decision-making reference for formulating policies to mobilizethe farmer’s fallowing enthusiasm and improve the arable land fallowing system.更多还原