【摘要】 采用德国Gemo公司研发的Floodarea水文动力模型,基于气象和灾情资料,模拟强降水导致的山洪情景下逐小时淹没预警点的动态结果,通过淹没深度与累积雨量的拟合,有效的划分了羊智沟山洪灾害不同淹没深度下的临界雨量阈值。结果表明:1)羊智沟流域降水量呈略递减趋势,变化率为-0.02mm/年,年平均气温呈现上升趋势,变化率约为0.032℃/年。2)逐小时淹没深度与6h累积面雨量拟合关系较好,通过0.001的显著性水平检验。3)通过淹没深度和累计雨量的有效拟合,划分了羊智沟洪水临界雨量阈值,为羊智沟洪水灾害预警提供科学依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 As global warming,more extreme events occurs than before,once it occurs,and it causes serious influence,so it become more and more important to research meteorology disaster,it not only can help us know disaster,conduct disaster forecast and loss assessment,but also it benefit for solving problems for government.Using a hydrological model named floodarea with a module for simulation.Based on land-use,runoff coefficient value,roughness value of Yangzhi ditch,the paper researched the results of simulated data of runoff depth and cumulative precipitation.It revealed the relation and calculate critical rainfalls triggering mudflow in different water-level using floodarea model.The results showed that:1)The trend of precipitation and temperature is-0.02,0.032 ℃/a in 5year moving average,respectively.2)The relationship of data-fitting depth and accumulative precipitation in six hours is better than other period of time in Yangzhi ditch.3)Based on fitting results,the paper put forward the risk precipitation in different grades at the warning spots.更多还原