【摘要】 中国是一个多地震的国家,1303—2011年的700多年间,中国大陆共发生M≥8大震23次,呈现出显著的自组织有序性,其主要有序值为252～258a,108～112a,94～98a,44～47a,24～25a,16～19a和11～14a.以翁文波信息预测理论为指导,将有序性分析与复杂网络技术相结合,努力探索具有中国特色自主创新的大震中长期预测方法,构建了中国大陆8级大震信息有序网络结构.在总结21世纪初中国大陆西部所发生的2次8级大震(2001年昆仑山8.1级大震、2008年汶川8.0级大震)预测研究的基础上,根据所建网络结构对中国大陆未来8级大震提出中长期预测意见:2022、2026、2045、2065年前后仍有可能发生M≥8大震.研究结果表明,大震是可以预测的,大震形成的机制具有网络特性.有序网络方法是大震中长期跨越式预测的有效方法.更多还原

【Abstract】 China is one of the countries which have the most earthquake disasters in the world.A total of 23 M≥8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2011.The seismic activity of M≥8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness.The main ordered values are 252-258 a,108-112 a,94-98 a,44-47 a,2425 a,16-19 a and 11-14 a.According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and combining ordered analysis with complex network technology,we build the informational ordered network structure of M≥8 great earthquakes in Mainland China,and summarize the prediction research on two great earthquakes(the 2001 Kunlunshan M8.1 and the 2008 Wenchuan M8.0 earthquake) during the beginning of the 21st century in western Mainland China.At last,we present new prediction opinion that the future M≥8 great earthquakes will probably occur in 2022,2026,2045 and 2065 pre and post in Mainland China.The results show that an M≥8 great earthquake can be predicted and the network feature is the formation mechanism of great earthquakes.Ordered network method produces satisfactory results in moderate and long term prediction for M≥8 great earthquakes.更多还原