【摘要】 边坡稳定性分析是一个涉及多因素、多层次的高度非线性系统。针对影响边坡稳定性因素的复杂性和不确定性等问题,通过正交试验法和改进PCA法相结合,在保留边坡原始数据的基础上对传统PCA法在数据标准化和处理指标因素在变异程度上的局限性进行改进,得出相应的边坡稳定性综合评价模型,然后通过蒙特卡罗法对边坡稳定性进行评价。研究结果表明,改进PCA法相对于传统的PCA法具有显着的降维作用,主要表现为第一主成分方差贡献率得到明显提高,能够更为合理的保存原始数据的信息,提取主成分个数更少,为后续计算综合评价模型减少了工作量;通过边坡稳定性综合评价模型不仅能够计算出边坡在不同水平因素组合下的安全系数,在水晶球软件的帮助下还可以快速对其进行可靠度分析,具有一定的工程实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Slope stability analysis is a highly nonlinear system involving many factors and layers. In view of the complexity and uncertainty of slope stability factors,through the combination of orthogonal test method and improved PCA method,the paper improved the traditional PCA method in data standardization and the variability of each index factor in processing based on raw data. We got the corresponding comprehensive evaluation model of slope stability. Then,the slope stability is evaluated with Monte Carlo method. The results show that the improved PCA method has a significant dimensionality reduction effect compared with the traditional PCA method. The main contribution is that the variance ratio of the first principal component is improved obviously. The raw data can be preserved more reasonably. The number of principal components is less. It will reduce the workload for the subsequent calculation of the comprehensive evaluation model. The comprehensive evaluation model of slope stability can not only calculate the safety factor of slope under different levels of factors,but also can quickly analyze the reliability of the software with the help of crystal ball software,which has certain practical value in project.更多还原