【摘要】 文章对影响建筑碳排放的因素进行了分析研究,找到了最有效的建筑减排措施。文章基于STIRPAT模型,在岭回归的基础上,分别对2006-2014年影响广州市公共和住宅建筑碳排放的因素进行了定量分析,并从微观角度定量评价了不同的减排措施。研究结果表明:公共建筑面积和第三产业增加值对公共建筑碳排放的影响最大,常住人口和公共建筑单耗的影响相对较小;常住人口和住宅建筑面积对住宅建筑碳排放的影响最大,其次为住宅单耗,而居民消费水平的影响较小。对广州市公共建筑进行外窗及外墙改造、普及LED灯和楼宇智能控制系统,2030年可减排512万tCO₂^e;对住宅建筑进行外窗贴膜及外墙改造、普及LED灯和太阳能热水器,2030年可减排127万t CO₂^e。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper aims to find the most effective measures on carbon emission reduction of buildings via analysis on contributing factors of it. Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis, we quantitatively analyzed the factors that influenced the carbon emission of public and residential buildings in Guangzhou during the period from 2006 to 2014. We also quantitatively evaluated diverse measures on carbon emission reduction from the micro perspective.The results revealed that, for carbon emission of public buildings, public building area and the added value of the tertiary industry contributed the most, while permanent population and the unit consumption of public gross area affected relatively less. For carbon emission of residential buildings, the permanent population and residential construction area impacted the most, followed by residential unit consumption. However, the level of residential consumption contributed less. In2030, renewing of external windows and exterior wall, utilities of LED lights and building intelligent control systems for public buildings in Guangzhou will reduce emission of 5.12 million tCO2 e. External window filming, exterior wall renewing, utilities of LED lights and solar water heaters for residential buildings will reduce emission of 1.27 million tCO2 e.更多还原