【摘要】 为研究不同煤炭开采模式下水土资源损毁程度,基于系统动力学原理构建了煤炭-水土资源经济系统的系统动力学模型,模型经过多次的运行完善,最后通过了检验,利用模型分析了不同情境下水土资源损毁系统的发展特征。通过对模型运行分析得出,影响煤炭开采量、耕地面积和水资源量的因素中敏感性最高的3个影响因子是采出率、废水治理率和复垦率。在将煤炭开采量控制在600万t以下,耕地面积和总供水保有量分别控制在31.25 km~2和1 872万t以上的前提下,对这3个主要影响因子进行了设置,模拟运行得出了长河流域煤矿区未来2017—2030年3种不同煤炭开采模式下水土资源的损毁状况,在不同煤炭开采规模情景下水土资源发展状况差别明显,经济优化型模式下,国民经济增长速度明显增加,但是耕地面积出现了小幅度减小,而且总供水量减少较快,容易给当地人民带来水资源不足的威胁,该方式不符合经济发展的长远利益;资源优化型,该模式下年国民生产总值增速明显减小,耕地面积和总供水量快速增加,资源型发展模式能够维护资源的健康稳步发展,但是不利于经济的发展;SD-MOP整合优化模型,该模式下适当控制煤炭开采规模,国民产值在较大程度稳步提升的前提下,也能保证水土资源的稳步增加,既考虑了经济效益又重视了自然资源,其优化方案是朝着煤炭资源、水土资源合理利用,经济-生态双优化的改造过程,是在提高研究区煤炭资源、水和土地资源的利用效率的过程,有助于优化长河流域煤炭、水和土地资源的数量结构、层次结构与效益结构。经过对这3种方案不断的运行检验得出:整合优化型煤炭开采模式为最优开采模式。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the damage degree of water and soil resources under different coal mining modes,the system dynamics model of coal-water and soil resources economic system was constructed based on the system dynamics theory.After many times of operation improvement,the model passed the test and was used to analyze the development charac-teristics of the water and soil resource damage system under different situations.Through the analysis of the model operation,three most sensitive factors affecting the amount of coal mining,cultivated land and water resources are the recovery rate,wastewater treatment rate and reclamation rate.Under the premise of controlling the coal mining volume below 6 Mt,the cultivated land area and the total water supply amount are controlled at 31.25 km~2 and more than 18.72 Mt respectively,three main influencing factors are reset,the simulated operation shows the damage of soil and water resources under three different coal mining modes from 2017 to 2030 in the coal mine area of the Chang River Basin.The difference in the development of water and soil resources under different scenarios of coal mining scale is obvious.Under the economic optimization mode,the growth rate of the national economy has increased significantly,but the area of cultivated land has decreased slightly,and the total water supply has decreased rapidly,which is easy to affect local people with insufficient water resources,so this mode is not in the long-term interest of economic development.Regarding to the resource optimization mode,the growth rate of annual gross national product is significantly reduced under this model,the area of cultivated land and total water supply increase rapidly,and the resource-based development model can maintain the healthy and steady development of resources,but it is not conducive to economic development.With the SD-MOP integrated optimization mode,the coal mining scale is properly controlled,the national output value can be steadily increased under the premise of steadily increasing,and the gradual increase of land and water resources can be ensured,taking into account both economic benefits and natural resources.The optimization plan is a process of rational utilization of coal resources,water and soil resources,and economic-ecological double optimization.It is also a process of improving the utilization efficiency of coal resources,water and land resources in the study area,and helps to optimize the quantitative structure,hierarchical structure and benefit structure of coal,water and land resources in the Chang River Basin.After the continuous test of these three modes,it is concluded that the integrated optimization coal mining mode is an optimal mining mode.更多还原