【摘要】 文章从林下经济的发展历程出发,分析不同时期林下经济的定义,对比林下经济模式的转变。基于统计年鉴数据,采用GM(1,1)灰色模型对林下经济产业的发展进行预测。结果表明,林下经济是今后林区发展的方向之一,是一种生态友好型经济,包括种植、林下养殖、相关产品采集加工、景观利用等;新时期林下经济将更加突出行业交叉,突显跨界经济效益,注重复合模式的运用;根据GM(1,1)灰色模型预测,2020年林下经济总产值占林业产业产值的比例将达到41.60%,森林旅游占林下经济总产值比例将达到41.62%,林下经济将成为林业产业的重要增长点;新时期林下经济是生态与产业的结合,扶贫与科技的结合,康养与民生的结合。更多还原

【Abstract】 Starting from the development of non-timber forest-based economy, this paper analyzed the definition of non-timber forest-based economy in different periods and compared the transformation of development model.GM(1,1)model were used to predict the development of forest economic industry based on the statistical yearbook data. The results showed that: non-timber forest-based economy is one of the main development directions of the forest regions in the future, and it is an ecologically friendly economy, including planting, forest breeding,collection and processing of related products, as well as landscape utilization. In the new era, non-timber forestbased economy will be more prominent in the crossing industry, highlight the cross-border economic benefits and focus on the application of the composite model; The proportion of non-timber forest-based economy output value in forestry industry will reach 41.60% in 2020, and the proportion of forest tourism in non-timber forest-based economy output value will reach 41.62% in 2020 based on GM(1,1)model. Non-timber forest-based economy is a combination of ecology and industry, poverty alleviation and technology, health care and people’s livelihood.更多还原