【摘要】 本文建立VAR-VEC模型,采用Johansen协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数等方法讨论了国内生产总值、城镇就业人数、农村就业人数之间的关系。结果表明,这3个变量之间存在长期均衡的协整关系,城镇就业人数对国内生产总值有一定的正向影响,农村就业人数对国内生产总值有一定的负向影响。当期的国内生产总值、城镇就业人数均受到前期的国内生产总值、城镇就业人数的正向影响;农村就业人数会受到前期的农村就业人数负向影响。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper establishes a VAR-VEC model, and uses Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function to discuss the relationship between GDP, urban employment and rural employment. The results show that there is a long-term and balanced co-integration relationship among the three variables. Urban employment has a positive impact on GDP, while rural employment has a negative impact on GDP. The current gross domestic product(GDP) and the number of urban employees are both positively affected by the previous gross domestic product(GDP) and the number of urban employees; the number of rural employees will be negatively affected by the previous number of rural employees.更多还原