【摘要】 从模糊数学和灰色系统理论两个不同角度来分析地震事件，把模糊数学的表达方式用于灰色灾变预测ＧＭ（１，１）中，建立了地震预测的模糊灰色模型。用此模型讨论了南北天山四个区（带）的震级序列，在等维情况下，对比了模糊灰色方法与单纯灰色方法的优劣，讨论了影响预测结果的因素，最后给出了不同目标震级下各区（带）的预测值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Combining the fuzzy mathematic expression with grey catastrophic predicting method GM (1, 1),seismic events are analyzed then. A fuzzy grey model for seismic prediction is set up to analyze the magnitude sequences that occurred in 4 zones in North and South Tianshan. In equidimensional conditions, merits and demerits of fuzzy -- grey method and pure grey method are compared. Factors that effect the predicting results are discussed as well. At last,predicting values of each zone for different objective magnitudes are given.更多还原