【摘要】 利用中国大陆MS≥8.0地震基本信息,研究其时空对称性,并对未来可能发生MS≥8.0地震的时间和地点进行趋势判断,目的是探索对称性在地震灾害预测中的应用价值。采用时间对称性的三元、四元、五元可公度方法和蝴蝶结构图法,对1500年以来中国大陆MS≥8.0地震进行趋势分析,结果表明,我国大陆未来5年内可能在2012年和2015年发生MS≥8.0地震。空间对称性方面,通过对每一期地震震源点位置统计综合构建多边形结构考虑其空间分布对称性,对历史MS≥8.0地震震源分布规律进行分析,结果表明,下一(几)次中国大陆发生MS≥8.0地震大致在105°E以西、34°N以南位置。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using basic information of earthquakes with MS≥8.0,in order to exploring application value of symmetry study in earthquake damage prediction,this paper analyzes space-time symmetry and predicts occur time and space of future earthquake with MS≥8.0.By using commensurability information extraction and Map of Butterfly Structure(MBS) method,this paper makes trend analysis of earthquakes with MS≥8.0 in mainland since 1500.The result shows that earthquakes with MS≥8.0 in mainland may occur in next five years from 2012 to 2015;Considering the symmetry of polygon structure space distribution built by each focal position and distribution of historical earthquakes,future earthquakes with MS≥8.0 location is west of 105°E and south of 34°N.更多还原