【摘要】 通过对滇南11次5级地震前地震活动、前兆异常指标的分析,用地震频度来描述区域地震活动的稳态或非稳态状态,用空区、条带描述地震的孕震过程,用预测指标权重集成信度值作为时间的判定依据。结果显示,4级地震显著平静超过700天之后3级地震频次活跃(半年超10次),是滇南发震的一个显著特点。地震空区、条带在滇南地区5级以上地震前具有普适性,从异常确认到发震平均持续时间为3.5个月,主震多发生于空区的边缘或条带空段部位,且位于相应的断裂带上。前兆群体非均匀度异常,可预测未来130天内滇南有M≥5、附近区域M≥6或云南省内有7级地震发生。滇南地区发震危险信度P≥0.577时,滇南及邻区发震的可能性更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 By analyzing the seismological and precursory indicators of M≥5 earthquakes in Southern Yunnan,with earthquake frequency to describe the regional steady or non-steady active state,with seismic gap、earthquake belt to describe the seismogenic process,with forecast index weight integrated reliability value as the time criterion,the result indicated: the activity of M≥3 earthquakes(more than 10 in six months) after the remarkable calm of M≥4 earthquakes(more than seven hundred days) is a salient feature of Southern Yunnan province;Seismic gap and earthquake belt are universal before M≥5 earthquakes in Southern Yunnan,the average duration from the anomaly determination to earthquake occurrence is about 3.5 months and the main shock often occurs at the end of the long or short axis of the seismic gap,or at the end,middle or the empty section of the earthquake belt,and at the corresponding fault;Precursory group inhomogeneous degree anomaly indicated that there will be a M≥7 earthquake in Yunnan,or a M≥5 earthquake in Southern Yunnan or a M≥6 earthquake in the adjacent areas in 130 days;When the southern Yunnan earthquake risk reliability Σpi≥0.525,we can predict the target earthquake occurring in Southern Yunnan and its neighborhood more possibly.更多还原