【摘要】 地震空区方法是利用地震活动图像预报地震效果较好的方法,然而单纯通过空区预报地震具有一定的局限性和不确定性。建立具有动力学含义的动态图像预测方法,把空区的形成和演化放在板块运动和构造特征的基础上考虑。通过对华东和华南地区26次5级以上地震的震例分析,给出主震发生与空区、活动断裂位置以及空区与活动断裂位置和走向的关系,并从两个区域的构造差异上给出空区形成和演化规律差异的动力学解释,从而为使用空区预测地震提供物理基础,减少了不确定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Seismic gap is a good earthquake prediction method through earthquake activity images,however,it has some limitation and uncertainty to predict earthquake through seismic gap simply.This paper establishes a prediction method of dynamic images with dynamic implication.The method considers the formation and evolution of seismic gap on the basis of plate motion and structural characteristics.Through analyzing 26 earthquake cases above MS5.0 occurring in east China and south China,the paper gives the relationship between main shock and seismic gap﹠active faults location as well as the relationship between seismic gap location and strike of active faults.Meanwhile,the paper provides dynamic explanation on the difference of seismic gap formation and evolution rules from the structure difference of the two regions,so as to provide physical basis for predicting earthquake by using seismic gap,and reduce the uncertainty.更多还原