【摘要】 首先,通过区域与近场地震活动性分析讨论了水库大坝所在场地的地震活动趋势,通过区域与近场地震活动构造的专题研究,评价了地震构造对场地的影响。然后,针对克孜尔水库大坝的抗震安全,评价了大坝的抗震性能;以系统可靠度理论为基础,建立了水库大坝的风险分析模型,采用故障树法识别各种潜在危险因素,揭示系统中的薄弱环节;采用事件树法追踪初始事件的所有后果或风险。最后,估计了直下型地震、准直下型地震的危险性分布,提出以抗震安全为主的风险对策。更多还原

【Abstract】 The seismic activity trend in the region of reservoir’s dam is disscussed;the effect of seismic structure to field is estimate by studying on seismic activity structure in the region.Using seismic safety of Kezir reservoir’s dam to estimate its seismic capability;based on system credibility theory,building risk analysis model of reservoir’s dam,using malfunction tree method to distinguish every latent risk factors,and open out weakness taches in the system;using event tree methods to trace all risks of original events.In the end,estimating risk distribution of the earthquakes under the dam and beneath the dam,and bring forward risk countermeasure of seismic safety.更多还原