【摘要】 介绍了地震活动时间间隔的概念,结合唐山老震区1985—2002年之间的ML4.5级以上地震,应用最小二乘法对中小震活动时间间隔对数-频次统计点进行线性拟合,分析统计点线性特征与ML4.5级以上地震实际间隔时间之间存在的联系,认为在部分ML4.5级以上地震发生前可以对其进行短期预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 The concept of seismic time gap was defined at first, and then 19852002 M\-L≥4.5 earthquakes in 1976 seismic region of Tanshan, Hebei, was used to give a statistic analysis. It was through least square method to make a linear fitting for statistical dots of the logarithms of time gaps to the seismic frequencies, further to predict earthquake occurrence time. After the comparison of predicted and actual results, it was thought that the shortterm prediction of some M\-L≥4.5 earthquakes could be given by this way.更多还原