【摘要】 对新疆近几年来强震成组活动和地震前兆场的动态演化图像进行追踪分析 ,进一步探讨了前兆异常群体演化与 1996— 1998年新疆成组地震的关系。结果表明 ,在成组强震孕育过程中 ,全新疆年度趋势预测定点前兆异常群体演化特征明显。自 1993年开始 ,全新疆异常比例逐年增加 ,1996年度为 38% ,在强震连发的 1997年度全新疆异常比例达最高值 4 7%。在前兆异常群体中期演化过程中 ,1996年 1月开始 ,出现较为密集的转折性短临异常变化 ,到 1996年 3月爆发了强震成组活动。目前 ,全新疆异常比例达低值 ,地震活动也表现出相对平静。结合这种演化特征 ,分析了新疆乌恰地区和北天山西段 2个地震危险区近期地震危险性。更多还原

【Abstract】 By tracing and analyzing the grouped strong earthquake activity and the dynamic evolution pattern of the earthquake precursor field in recent years in Xinjiang, the relation between the colonial evolution of precursor anomalies and 1996 1998 grouped earthquakes in Xinjiang was discussed. The result indicates the precursor anomalies observed at fixed stations in Xinjiang showed obvious colonial evolution feature. Since 1993 the proportion of the earthquake anomalies in Xinjiang has been increasing year by year. In 1996 the proportion was 30%, and to the 1997 in which the strong shocks occurred continuously, it is high to 47%. In the medium term of colonial evolution of precursor anomalies, there had been intensive short term and impending earthquake anomalies appearing (from Jan. 1996), and in Mar. 1996 occurred grouped strong earthquake activity. At present, the proportion of the anomalies in Xinjiang has come to a low value, meanwhile, the seismic activity is also relatively calm. Combined with this anomaly evolution feature, the recent seismic risks in two seismic risk regions of Wuqia and the west of Tianshan in Xinjiang were analyzed.更多还原