【摘要】 火电企业作为首先被纳入全国统一碳排放交易市场的碳排放大户,生产经营必然会受到统一碳排放交易市场机制的影响。研究利用古诺多寡头垄断博弈模型,求解引进统一碳排放交易市场前后企业利润的最优均衡解。应用情景分析法量化五种情景下火电企业的利润变化率,以碳市场价格和免费配额分配比例为敏感性因素进行分析。借鉴前期试点地区的碳市场价格和免费配额比例,模拟全国碳交易。结果显示:当全国统一的碳排放交易市场运行后,火电企业的短期经济效益基本不受影响,但相较于碳市场价格的高低波动,免费碳配额比例的变动对火电企业的经济效益影响更大。更多还原

【Abstract】 As a carbon emission company that was first included in the national unified carbon emissions trading market,thermal power enterprises will inevitably be affected by the unified carbon trading market mechanism. The study uses the Cournot oligopoly game model to solve the optimal equilibrium solution of corporate profits before and after the introduction of the unified carbon emissions trading market. The scenario analysis method is used to quantify the profit change rate of thermal power enterprises under five scenarios,and the sensitivity is analyzed by the carbon market price and the free quota allocation ratio. Drawing on the carbon market price and free quota ratio in the pilot areas in the previous period,the national carbon trading was simulated,and the short-term economic benefits of thermal power enterprises were basically not affected after the national unified carbon trading market was operated. However,compared with the high and low fluctuations in the carbon market price,the change in the proportion of free carbon allowances has a greater impact on the economic benefits of thermal power companies.更多还原