【摘要】 地震前的热异常已有许多研究,大多研究得出的异常区域面积过大或者远离震中以至于难以判断震中。用温度相减法研究张北地震前的温度变化,发现震前13天张北附近出现了孤立的增温区,张北站增温5.8℃,是当天整个中国东部地区的最大增温值。增温区长轴为北东向,区内分布有北东向尚义-多伦断裂。震前1天沿北西向张北—渤海断裂带张北的增温也达到最大值,张北地震即发生在这两组断裂汇而不交的部位。将增温区中心预测为震中,误差大概为80km,这一数值结果比目前大多数热异常的研究结果好,显示出气象数据在地震研究中有一定应用价值。同时,气象数据的观测和加工有全国统一的规范,处理起来简单方便,本文提出的温度相减法,简便易行,由于使用的是温度的相对变化,避免了各地小气候不同导致的温度差异。如果结合地震台网观测数据,在地震预测研究中能发挥更好的效果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The thermal anomaly before earthquake was widely studied during the last 20 years;in most cases the thermal anomaly is far away from the epicenter,so it is difficult to predict the epicenter with this anomaly.In this paper,the air temperature data was used to study the thermal anomaly before the Zhangbei earthquake of Jan.10,1998.The results show that an isolated area with high temperature appeared at a place close to the epicenter 13 days before this quake,at the same time the temperature was also the maximum value in the whole east China.The long axis of this area points northeast,the same as that of Shangyi-Duolun fault.The air temperature along the northwest Zhangbei-Bohai fault reached the maximum value at Zhangbei station one day before the quake,and the Ms 6.2 quake occurred at the intersection area of these two fault systems.If the center of the thermal anomaly area was predicted as the future epicenter,the error will be 80km,as a much better result than most other predictions.It shows that the meteorology data are also useful in earthquake predictions.At the same time,the meteorology data can be obtained and processed with a national uniform criterion,and are easily available to researchers.The subtraction method considers the relative temperature change,which may eliminate the influence of the temperature difference caused by different local climates.If the geophysical data measured by seismic stations are combined with the meteorology data,a better earthquake prediction would be possible.更多还原