【摘要】 房地产行业快速发展的同时也存在房价居高不下的现象,对于房价未来的发展趋势预测已成为学术研究和社会各界关注的重点。为了对房地产市场有进一步的了解,将灰色理论用于房价的预测问题,根据2007年—2016年全国房价及其作用成分的统计数据,运用灰色关联分析方法确定能够干扰全国房价的主要解释变量,包括:住房租金类居民消费价格指数、用于住宅类土地价格、房地产开发企业竣工房屋造价。结合GM(1,1)模型,对全国房价先模拟后预测,得出全国房价未来的发展走向,并比较二者的预测性能。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the rapid development of the real estate industry,there is still a phenomenon of high housing prices. The prediction of the future development trend of housing prices has become the focus of academic research and social attention. To get a better understanding of the real estate market,the gray theory is applied to the prediction of house prices. Based on the statistical data of house prices and their components from2007 to 2016 in China,the main explanatory variables which can interfere with the national house prices are determined by the gray correlation analysis method,including the housing rent consumer price index and the use of in the residential land prices,real estate development enterprises completed housing costs. Combined with GM( 1,1) model,the national housing prices are simulated first and then predicted,and the future development trend of the national housing prices is obtained. The forecasting performance of the two models is compared to prove the accuracy of the model.更多还原