【摘要】 为了合理体现交通事故延误对出行者路径选择的影响,提出了随机状态下的交通事故时间延误模型。将交通事故的随机性、持续时间和道路通行能力等不确定性因素引入到交通分配模型中,并对路径选择模型进行修正。分析了各等级道路最大适宜出行范围,根据修正的路径选择模型,采用逐次交通分配方法,得到各等级道路的出行周转量和出行距离,并与不考虑交通事故延误时的出行距离进行了对比分析。分析结果表明:当考虑交通事故延误时,支路、次干路、主干路、快速路的最大出行距离分别为2.000、2.946、4.054、5.963km;当不考虑交通事故延误时,支路、次干路、主干路、快速路的最大出行距离分别为2.000、3.000、6.000、10.000km;交通事故延误是影响出行者路径选择的重要因素;当考虑交通事故延误时,高等级道路的最大出行距离变小。相比于传统的路径选择模型,本文模型更优。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to reflect the influence of traffic accident delay on route choice for traveler reasonably,traffic accident delay model under random state was put out.The uncertain factors of traffic accident such as randomness,duration and road capacity were introduced into traffic assignment model,and the route choice model was modified.The maximum preponderant travel range of each grade road was analyzed.According to the modified route choice model,successive traffic assignment method was adopted.The turnovers and travel distances of all grade roads were got,and the travel distances were compared with the travel distances while traffic accident delay was not considered.Analysis result shows that while traffic accident delay is considered,the maximum travel distances of brunch,secondary primary road,main road and expressway are 2.000,2.946,4.054 and 5.963 km respectively.While traffic accident delay is not considered,the maximum distances of those roads are 2.000,3.000,6.000 and 10.000 km respectively.Traffic accident delay is the significant factor for traveler route choice.While traffic accident delay is considered,the maximum travel distances of higher grade roads decrease.Compared with the conventional route choice models,the proposed model is better.6 tabs,3 figs,23 refs.更多还原