【摘要】 分析了单一参照指标选择风险控制方案存在的片面性,考虑样本在指标上的序关系及其差异程度,提出了基于优势度的风险控制方案多参照指标选择模型。模型中充分利用了数据所包含的信息,实现了专家主观因素与数据客观规律相结合的功能,并可通过调整权重向量突出某个指标在排序中的作用。以国际海事组织的油船和普通杂货船综合安全评估报告提供的风险控制方案为例,采用模型进行方案优选。分析结果表明:在各种权重向量下,算例1中方案2、5、6和算例2中方案1、2、3、6、13的优势度都较大,属于比较理想的方案;算例2中方案的优势度随着总灾难转移费用的不断增加而逐渐减小,总灾难转移费用可作为风险控制方案的优先选择指标。可见,模型具有较强的适应性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The one-sidedness in selecting risk control option(RCO) with reference to single index was analyzed,and a multi-index selection model of RCOs based on dominance degree was proposed by considering the ranking and difference degrees of samples on indexes.The model combined the subjective factors of experts and data objectivity by fully employing information contained in data,and highlighted the function of certain index in the ranking of RCOs by adjusting weight vectors.RCOs in formal safety assessment reports on oil tankers and general cargo ships submitted to International Maritime Organization were taken as examples,and the model was applied in RCO optimization.Analysis result shows that the options 2,5,6 in example 1 have higher dominance degrees under all weight vectors,and the same is true of options 1,2,3,6,13 in example 2,and these RCOs are ideal options.The dominance degrees of options in example 2 decrease gradually with the increasing of gross cost of averting a facility(GCAF),and GCAF can be taken as a preferred selection index of RCOs.So the model has higher adaptability.4 tabs,1 fig,15 refs.更多还原