【摘要】 目的探讨成都市大气颗粒物(PM_2.5)污染所致老年人超额死亡风险。方法收集2013—2016年成都市大气颗粒物(PM_2.5)日平均浓度、死亡个案数据及气象因素,利用广义相加模型,控制时间的长期趋势、气象因素等混杂因素,分析PM_2.5浓度对老年人死亡的影响。收集2017年成都市大气颗粒物(PM_2.5)日平均浓度和死亡个案数据,根据健康损失计算模型,估算2017年成都市PM_2.5污染造成的老年人超额死亡人数。结果单污染物模型显示成都市PM_2.5浓度每升高10μg/m³,老年人非意外总死亡风险增加0.36%（95%CI:0.25%～0.48%）,呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加0.51%（95%CI:0.30%～0.72%）,循环系统疾病死亡风险增加0.36%（95%CI:0.16%～0.56%）。多污染物模型中,成都市PM_2.5浓度每升高10μg/m³,老年人非意外总死亡风险增加0.33%（95%CI:0.21%～0.45%）,呼吸系统疾病死亡风险增加0.48%（95%CI:0.26%～0.69%）,循环系统疾病死亡风险增加0.29%（95%CI:0.09%～0.49%）。2017年成都市老年人因PM_2.5污染造成的非意外、呼吸系统疾病、循环系统疾病超额死亡数分别为1 252、540、409人,占当年老年人同死因别总死亡数的1.95%、2.72%、1.94%。结论 PM_2.5污染增加老年人超额死亡风险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the excess mortality risk of fine particle matter(PM_2.5)among the elderly residents in Chengdu.Methods Daily concentrations of PM_2.5,daily mortality data and weather conditions from 2013 to 2016 in Chengdu were collected.After adjustment of the effects of long-term trend of death,weather conditions and other confounding factors,generalized additive model（GAM）was used to explore the relationship between the level of PM_2.5 and the elderly mortality.Daily concentrations of PM_2.5 and daily mortality data of Chengdu in 2017 were collected.Excess mortality of Chengdu in 2017 was estimated by using a Health loss calculation model.Results In single-pollutant model,the risks of all causes（non-accident）,respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases of elderly increased by 0.36%（95%CI:0.25%-0.48%）,0.51%（95%CI:0.30%-0.72%）and 0.36%（95%CI:0.16%-0.56%）,respectively with every rise of 10μg/m³ in PM_2.5 concentration.In multi-pollutant model,the risks of all causes（non-accident）,respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases of elderly increased by 0.33%（95%CI:0.21%-0.45%）,0.48%（95%CI:0.26%-0.69%）and 0.29%（95%CI:0.09%-0.49%）,respectively with every rise of 10μg/m³ in PM_2.5 concentration.The numbers of elderly excess mortality of all causes（nonaccident）,respiratory diseases,circulatory disease were 1 252,540 and 409 in Chengdu,which accounted for 1.95%,2.72% and 1.94% of the same category death in 2017,respectively.Conclusion PM_2.5 could increase the excess mortality risk among the elderly residents.更多还原