【摘要】 为研究宁夏地区水资源承载力发展状况,以宁夏整体和北部引黄灌区、中部干旱带、南部山区为研究对象,采用主成分分析、模糊层次分析、GM(1,1)和不同情景模式法,分析了2004-2016年水资源承载力的动态变化、驱动因子和未来(2020、2025、2030年)不同情景下的发展。结果表明:北部引黄灌区和宁夏整体变化趋势相近,在2004-2016年呈现稳定增加趋势;中部干旱带虽然也呈上升趋势,但变化幅度不大;南部山区波动较大,虽然也表现为一定增加,但效果很小。水资源承载力的良性发展是以牺牲部分生态环境为代价,不同因素的驱动影响大小排序为森林覆盖率>生态用水率>农业依赖度>年降水量>人均GDP>恩格尔系数。未来4种情景假设下的宁夏地区水资源承载力状态发展良好,排序为情景3>现状>情景2>情景1。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the development status of water resources carrying capacity of Ningxia, the Ningxia’s overall and Northern Yellow River Irrigation Zone, the central arid zone and the Southern Mountainous Area were taken as study object, the dynamic changes of water resources carrying capacity, driving factors and development in the future(2020, 2025, 2030) in different situations were analyzed by using principal component analysis, fuzzy analytic hierarchy analysis, GM(1,1) and different scenario models. The results showed that the change trend of the northern Yellow River irrigation area was similar to that in Ningxia, which showed a steady increase trend from 2004 to 2016; although the central arid zone was also on the rise, the change range was not big; the fluctuation of southern mountainous area was larger, although it also showed a certain increase, the effect was very small; the benign development of water resource carrying capacity was at the cost of sacrificing part of ecological environment; the order of driving effects of different factors was forest coverage rate > ecological water use rate > agricultural dependence rate > annual precipitation > per capita GDP> Engel coefficient. In the future, the carrying capacity of water resources in Ningxia region under the four scenarios is well developed, ranking as scenario 3>, current situation >scenario 2>scenario 1.更多还原