【摘要】 高杠杆和短债长用是企业面临的两大核心债务问题,本文将其纳入统一的分析框架,基于2000—2015年中国上市公司面板数据,分析其对企业绩效和债务风险的影响,并首次考察了两者的交互效应。研究表明:第一,杠杆率降低了企业总资产回报率并提高了债务风险,但有利于提高净资产回报率,构成企业杠杆融资的微观基础;短债长用既不利于企业绩效又提高债务风险,且加剧了债务风险的隐蔽性和突发性,反映了企业融资期限约束下的被动选择。第二,短债长用与杠杆率存在显著的交互效应,弱化了杠杆率的积极作用,强化了杠杆率的消极影响,恶化了企业的风险融资体征和破产风险。第三,杠杆率与短债长用通过增加企业财务成本和降低研发投入两方面恶化企业绩效。第四,上述影响存在一定的企业异质性和长短期差异。本文为杠杆率研究提供了新的分析视角和经验证据,为深化金融供给侧结构性改革提供了学理支持。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the importance of financial stability for economic stability has received increasing attention. Under the "debt-investment" driven growth model, the size of China’s non-financial corporate debt has risen rapidly, raising concerns about debt risk. China’s policymakers have launched a series of deleveraging measures to solve this issue. In this context, the formation and function of corporate debt is not only an important theoretical issue, but also a major practical issue. High leverage and "short-term debt for long-term use" are two core debt problems faced by Chinese enterprises. Current studies mostly analyze China’s debt risk from the perspective of the macro-leverage ratio. However, using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a measure of debt risk does not consider corresponding assets, and there is often a periodic deviation from the micro-leverage ratio. To better understand China’s debt problems, it is necessary to focus on the enterprise level to examine the impact and mechanism of micro-leverage. In addition, one factor that cannot be ignored is the common phenomenon of "short-term debt for long-term use" in Chinese enterprises-in other words, a maturity mismatch between debt and assets. China’s corporate debt is dominated by short-term debt, which requires continuous rolling financing to support long-term investment. Such a practice is likely to aggravate business difficulties and trigger liquidity risk, which in turn adversely affects enterprise performance and debt risk. More importantly, short-term debt for long-term use is likely to have an interaction effect with leverage ratio, weakening the latter’s positive effects while strengthening its negative effects.This paper integrates leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use into a unified analytical framework and constructs a series of relevant indicators using panel data drawn from listed companies in China from 2000 to 2015. In particular, the paper decomposes the enterprise debt problem into two dimensions: leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use. Using this framework, systematic analysis is carried out from the perspectives of both enterprise performance and debt risk, and the interaction effect between leverage ratio and short-term debt for long-term use is investigated for the first time in the literature.The main findings are as follows. First, leverage ratio reduces return on assets and increases enterprises’ probability of risk financing and bankruptcy, but it improves return on equity, which constitutes the micro-foundation of leveraged management. Short-term debt for long-term use is not only bad for business performance but also increases corporate debt risk, reflecting the passive choice of enterprises under the restriction of financing terms. Secondly, there is a significant interaction effect between short-term debt for long-term use and leverage ratio, which weakens the positive effect of leverage and strengthens its negative impacts. Such an interaction effect significantly increases the debt risk of enterprises. Third, mechanism analysis shows that leverage and short-term debt for long-term use can deteriorate enterprise performance by increasing financial costs and reducing R&D. Fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that for high-growth enterprises and private enterprises, leverage financing is relatively advantageous in supporting business development. Fifth, comparative analysis of long-term and short-term impacts shows that the negative impact on enterprise performance gradually eases over time, but the adverse impact on debt risk persists. The findings of the paper provide new policy implications for resolving debt risks and deleveraging. Firstly, in the process of deleveraging, attention should be paid not only to the leverage ratio itself, but also to firms’ debt maturity structure. Secondly, due to the existence of interaction effects, efforts must be made to avoid increasing the degree of short-term debt for long-term use as a cost of implementing the deleveraging policy. Instead, solving the short-term debt for long-term use problem can achieve the same effect as deleveraging. Considering the common predicament among Chinese firms of debt maturity being too short, it is urgent that firms’ debt maturity structure be optimized as part of "financial supply side structural reform"; that is, market-oriented reforms of the banking sector and direct financing market.更多还原