【摘要】 本文使用双重差分模型(DID),集中研究"一带一路"倡议对中国经常账户和资本与金融账户的影响,从国际收支的重要角度论证了"一带一路"的经济可行性。分别计算该倡议对经常账户以及资本与金融账户影响的性质与大小,可以发现中国对"一带一路"沿线国家国际收支的经常项目保持了顺差,但资本与金融账户则不确定。这是因为"一带一路"目前还处于经济与贸易融合阶段。未来是否能够进入金融融合高级阶段,取决于中国金融核心能力建设、人民币国际化以及中国是否能成功摆脱中等收入陷阱等因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper focuses on the impact of the "Belt and Road" initiative on China’s current account and capital and financial accounts with countries along the "B&R" through the difference-in-difference model(DID),and demonstrates its economic feasibility from the important perspective of the balance of payments.This paper separately calculated the nature and size of the impact of the "B&R" initiative on the current account and capital and financial accounts,showing that China maintained a surplus in the current account of the balance of payments,but the capital and financial accounts were uncertain.This is because the "Belt and Road" initiative is still in the stage of economic and trade integration.Whether the advanced stage of financial integration can be achieved depends on China’s financial core capacity building,RMB internationalization,and whether China can successfully get rid of the middle income trap,etc.更多还原