【摘要】 "‘一带一路’倡议"是我国新时代全面对外开放的重要举措,对于加强对外合作共赢具有重大战略意义。研究运用产业转移评估模型、产业转移吸引力评估模型,结合变异系数、基尼系数以及空间自相关分析等方法探讨了"一带一路"沿线国家对中国产业转移承接力与吸引力的时空分异特征以及中国产业转移的区位选择,研究表明:①2012—2016年"一带一路"沿线国家对中国产业转移的承接力呈波动上升趋势,基尼系数由0.198降为0.185,表明沿线各国产业转移承接力差异有所减小但仍存在一定的区域差异,Moran’s I的均值为0.367,表明产业承接力空间集聚态势明显;②2012—2016年沿线国家对中国产业转移的吸引力总体呈上升趋势,吸引力有空间正相关关系且大致符合距离衰减定律,基尼系数在0.756附近上下浮动,表明沿线各国产业转移吸引力的差异态势大致不变且区域差异仍然较大,Moran’s I的均值为0.126,表明空间集聚态势较弱;③将承接力与吸引力划分为7种组合类型,并基于中国与沿线国家产业结构相似度以及中国对沿线国家投资分布,提出我国对"一带一路"沿线国家产业转移的区位选择建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Belt and Road Initiative is an important promotion of China’s regional development strategy, which is of great strategic significance for enhancing regional cooperation and win-win results. Study uses industry transfer assessment models and industry transfer attraction assessment models; Combined with the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient and the spatial autocorrelation analysis, study discusses the spatial and temporal characteristics of industrial transfer relay and attraction of countries along the Belt and Road and the location selection of industrial transfer in China. Study shows: 1) From 2012 to 2016, the suppor of countries along the Belt and Road for industrial transfer in China has fluctuated and increased, and the Gini coefficient has dropped from 0.198 to 0.185. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer capacity between countries along the route has decreased, but there are still certain regional differences. The average value of Moran’s I is 0.367, indicating that the industrial relay space agglomeration situation is obvious; 2) The overall attraction of countries along the routes to China’s industrial transfer in 2012-2016 is on the rise.The attraction has a positive correlation with space and roughly conforms to the law of distance attenuation. The Gini coefficient fluctuates around 0.756. It shows that the difference of industrial transfer attraction between countries along the route is generally unchanged and the regional difference is still large. The average value of Moran’s I is 0.126,indicating that the spatial agglomeration is weak; 3) There are 7 types of combination of strength and attraction, based on the similarity in the industrial structure between China and countries along the route and the distribution of China’s investment in countries along the route. The study puts forward some suggestions on the location of industrial transfer between China and countries along the Belt and Road.更多还原