【摘要】 为适应风险预警"风险可能性低、安全满意度高"的心理特征与期望,提出了一种基于改进可能满意度的震后工程抢修抢建风险预警方法。在介绍可能满意度方法原理基础上,建立了震后工程抢修抢建风险预警模式,划分预警等级,确定多层次风险预警等级的可能度、满意度函数,分析风险可能度与满意度的互逆变化特征,确定风险预警可能满意度的并合形式化表达,运用数据包络分析方法改进风险预警的可能满意度模型,确定震后工程抢修抢建风险预警的相对可能满意度模型。模型应用于边坡工程抢修作业进程中整体安全风险预警案例,结果表明方法合理、可行,具有较好的预警能力。更多还原

【Abstract】 To the mental characteristics about "Lower risk possibility,Higher safety satisfaction",a risk early-warning method was proposed to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering with the improved P-S model.Based on the Possibility-satisfaction principle,the risk early-warning method was erected,with its early-warning grade plotted out,and its possibility function and satisfactory function presented in the corresponding early-warning layer.As opposite changing characteristic was analyzed in the possibility and satisfactory functions,the formal expression was given in the merging process of the early-warning possibility-satisfaction.Data envelopment analysis(DEA) improved the early-warning P-S model,and the relative early-warning possibility-satisfaction model was established to repair and construct operations for earthquake-damaged engineering.The model was applied into the whole risk early-warning case in the repairing process on rock slope,whose outcome indicated the rationality and feasibility,revealing its better early-warning ability.更多还原