【摘要】 以东日本大地震及其次生灾害为例,从人为因素分析入手,揭示出技术过度自信是东日本大地震及其次生灾害的一个重要的人为因素。文章围绕技术过度自信的概念、类型、成因及作用机理进行了探讨。分析了技术过度自信对工程项目建设存在的影响,即决策风险、勘察风险、设计风险、施工风险和监理风险。并从控制机制和制度、交流与学习、培训和宣传、理论研究等四个方面提出了预防或减少技术过度自信的对策及建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Technological overconfidence is identified to be an important human factor via analysis of the Great East Japan Earthquake and its secondary disasters.The paper discusses the concept,the classifications,the causes and mechanism of technological overconfidence.The influence of technological overconfidence on project construction,namely,decision-making risk,reconnaissance risk,design risk,construction risk,and supervision risk,is analyzed.Some countermeasures and suggestions focusing on control mechanisms and systems,communication and learning,training and publicity,and theoretical research are proposed to prevent technological overconfidence.更多还原