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基于海啸浮标数据反演的海啸数值预报方法的初步研究

A preliminary study on tsunami numerical forecasting method based on the data inversion of buoy observations

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【作者】 王君成于福江赵联大王培涛

【Author】 WANG Jun-cheng,YU Fu-jiang,ZHAO Lian-da,WANG Pei-tao(National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Beijing 100081 China)

【机构】 国家海洋环境预报中心

【摘要】 介绍了应用于我国第二代海啸预警系统的基于海啸浮标数据反演的准实时海啸预警方法,并对其做了一些初步的实验和讨论。结果显示对反演结果有较大影响的因素是所选浮标的位置,当浮标与地震源之间的海底地形较平坦时有利于反演,因为平坦的地形可以最大限度的减小非线性作用和底摩擦作用。浮标数据长度及单位源范围的选择对反演结果不会产生很明显的影响,在海啸预警过程中,浮标数据包含海啸波第一波的信息即可,单位源范围尽可能包括所有震源区域即可。

【Abstract】 Based on the data inversion of buoy observations,the near real-time tsunami warning method,which has been applied to the second generation of tsunami warning system in the National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center(NMEFC),is introduced in this paper.Sensitive studies are also made to identify key factors to the performance of the system.It is shown that the choice of different buoys will largely affect the accuracy of the data inversion.Due to reduced non-linear effect and bottom friction,flat seafloor topography between buoy and earthquake source favors to reach the high data inversion accuracy.In contrast,neither the temporal length of buoy observations nor the range of earthquake unit is sensitive to the inversion accuracy.In the practice of tsunami warning,the system works reasonably well as long as buoy observations capture the first tsunami wave,or earthquake unit covers the earthquake source.

【关键词】 海啸浮标反演数值预报
【Key words】 tsunamibuoy observationdata inversionnumerical forecasting
【基金】 “十一五”国家科技公关项目“近海重大海洋灾害预警关键技术研究”(2006BAC03B02);国家海洋局青年海洋科学基金重点项目:“基于互逆格林函数的南、东、黄、海快速海啸预警系统”(2011202)
  • 【分类号】P731.25
  • 【被引频次】2
  • 【下载频次】103
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