【摘要】 灰色系统理论是由我国学者首创的新型学科,在社会科学与自然科学的各个领域已得到广泛的应用。基于中国知网(CNKI)数据库文献检索到的136篇文献,运用文献计量学的方法,对灰色系统理论在渔业科学中的应用研究进行了系统地整理与分析,对未来的发展趋势与存在的问题进行了讨论。分析结果显示,1988年首次在渔业科学领域采用灰色系统理论研究,其成果和应用得到较为快速的发展。在研究内容上,渔业产业结构调整、渔业水域环境评价、产量预测等研究已较为成熟;在研究方法上,灰色关联法、灰色聚类分析、GM(1,1)模型预测等应用较为广泛。建议以后拓展渔情预报等方面的研究,深入探讨灰色理论原理,优化预测模型,最终开发出应用于渔业科学领域的灰色系统软件。更多还原

【Abstract】 The grey system theory is a new discipline pioneered by Chinese scholars, which has been widely used in various fields of social and natural sciences. Based on the 136 documents retrieved from the China Knowledge Network(CNKI) database, the method of bibliometrics was used to systematically collate and analyze the application of grey system theory in fishery science, and the future development trend and existing problems are also discussed. The analysis results showed that the grey system theory research was first used in the fishery science field in 1988, and its results and applications have been developed rapidly. In the research content, the researches on fishery industry structure adjustment, fishery water environment evaluation and fisheries production forecasting have been widely developed. Meanwhile the research methods, including grey correlation method, grey cluster analysis and GM(1,1) model prediction are widely used. It is suggest that we need expand the research on fishery forecasting and other aspects, in-depth studying of the principle of grey theory, optimizing the prediction model, and developing the grey system software applicable for the fishery science field in the future.更多还原