【摘要】 收集巴伦支海海域近岸1996-2015年海流数据,提取各年流速最大值得到不分方向的年极值流速序列,绘制16个方向的海流流速玫瑰图,选取N至S向9个流向的各年流速最大值得到9个分向的年极值流速序列。采用4种概率模型,即GEV分布,Gumbel分布,Weibull分布和P-III型分布,对抽取的年极值流速序列进行拟合,采用K-S检验和均方根误差法(RMSE)对分布进行拟合优度检验。选取一工程点并计算得到该点处的分方向和不分方向的年极值流速多年一遇重现值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The data of ocean current are collected in Barents offshore area from 1996 to 2015 and the non-directional annual extreme current speed sequence is obtained by extracting the annual maximum. The ocean current rose diagrams in 16 directions are plotted. Extracting the annual maximum values from N to S to get the annual extreme current speed sequences in 9 directions. Four probabilistic models, namely GEV distribution, Gumbel distribution, Weibull distribution and P-III type distribution, are used to fit the extracted annual extreme current speed sequences. Both K-S test and root mean square error method are used for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. The non-directional and directional return values of current speed at a project site which is chosen in advance are estimated.更多还原