【摘要】 对地球物理灾害链的致灾机理,地震引起的放气范围、放气时间过程的计算方法,以及地气耦合致灾模式,进行了讨论和分析。分析结果认为,巨灾大都是多种因素迭加和强化的结果。由于单学科往往提出的致灾因素有限,所以预测效果不甚理想。要多学科从多种因素上去研究,才能改进大灾预测手段和方法,最后达到灾害链全链预测的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,the inducement mechanism of geophysical disaster chain,the deflation scope of earthquake,the method of calculating deflation time and the disaster inducement mechanism of coupled Land-atmosphere model are discussed and analyzed.The results suggest that great disasters are always the results of various factors.It is limited on disaster inducement factors presented by single subject,so the forecast effect is not very good.To forecast the whole disaster chain,we should improve the method by using various factors from various subjects.更多还原