【摘要】 本文基于观测数据和文献资料,分析了近几十年来气候变化下我国沿海海平面和海表温度,以及台风、风暴潮和赤潮等主要致灾因子及灾害损失的变化。结果表明,近40年来,我国沿海海平面和海表温度显著上升,上升速率分别为3.3 mm/a和0.016°C/a,高于全球平均和我国的历史变化水平,2017年中国沿海的海表温度达到了1960年有记录以来的最高值,并且自2000年以来,超强台风、风暴潮和赤潮等致灾事件的发生频次呈显著增加趋势;气候变化下,受关键海洋环境要素变迁和超强台风、风暴潮等极端事件的影响,我国沿海地区暴露度明显加大。随着我国海洋防灾减灾水平的提高,近30年来海洋灾害损失出现下降趋势。值得指出的是,每年各类海洋灾害总损失仍高达百亿元量级(年均直接经济损失约120亿元),其中,2005年总损失达到最高值,约332亿元,这与致灾事件的强度以及各致灾事件、灾种的叠加放大效应有密切关系。本文进一步从气候变化综合风险理论角度出发,结合海岸带及沿海地区致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度和脆弱性及其相互作用关系,分析了气候变化背景下我国沿海地区海洋灾害风险的特征,探讨了有关海洋灾害的监测、预测预警和风险治理能力建设等若干科学问题,以期为我国沿海地区社会经济的可持续发展提供科学参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on lasted observations and research literatures, the variations of the key environmental hazard elements in the coastal China seas(CCS)such as sea level, sea surface temperature, super typhoons, storm surges and red tides, as well as total economic losses of marine disasters under the climate change in the recent decades was briefly analyzed. The results show that in the past 40 years, sea level and surface temperature in the CCS have increased significantly, with the rate of 3.3 mm/year and 0.016 ℃/year, respectively, higher than the global average and the historical mean in the CCS. The recordbreaking SST along the coastal China in 2017 was the highest observation since 1960. The frequency of disasters caused by super-typhoons, storm surges and red tides has increased significantly since 2000. Under the influence of changes in the key marine environmental hazards and extreme events such as super typhoons and storm surges, the exposure of the coastal China areas has amplified greatly. With the improvement of marine disaster prevention and reduction measures in the coastal China area, the economic loss of marine disasters has been decreasing in the past 30 years. However, it is worth pointing out that the annual total economic loss of various marine disasters is still as much as 10 billion RMB(about 12 billion RMB of direct economic loss per year), of which the total economic loss reached the largest in 2005, about 33.2 billion RMB. This is closely related to the intensity of the disasters and the superposition and amplification effect of multiple disasters. Based on the risk of climate-related impacts from the interaction of climate-related hazard with the exposure and vulnerability of coastal human and natural systems in coastal areas,this paper further analyzes the characteristics of marine disaster risks in the coastal China areas under the background of climate change. And some scientific issues concerning marine disaster monitoring,prediction, early warning and capacity building of marine risk governance are discussed in order to provide scientific reference for the sustainable development of economy and society in the coastal China areas.更多还原